A CLOSER LOOK AT GRANDERSON

Curtis Granderson will be 29 years old next opening day. He batted .249 last season for Detroit, but did have 30 HRs, 20 SBs, and 72 walks. Among would-be AL East centerfielders, only Jacoby Ellsbury had a better year, and keep in mind that this was an off-year for Granderson. His 2007 campaign was a monster, with 84 extra base hits including 23 triples, a .302 BA, and 26-for-27 stolen bases.

One of the problems with this trade is the Yankees seem to be expecting the 2007 Granderson, & the D'Backs are expecting the 2009 Edwin Jackson. Why won't this happen? Granderson's OPS has declined each year since 2007. He strikes out a ton-- an average of 142 times in his 4 full seasons. This seems to point to the AL pitchers exploiting a flaw in his swing. At least Granderson, at only 29, is unlikely to decline further right away, and a return to 2008's .280/.365/.494 line isn't improbable. He's an exciting player, and he provides excellent power from the leadoff spot. He's a good pickup for them (though defensively I'd prefer him to play LF, and keep Melky / Gardner in center). Money isn't an issue for the Yankees, and the only question is whether they are paying too high a price in prospects.

Let's move for a second to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who aren't exactly the brightest bulb in the NL. Max Scherzer, now a Detroit Tiger, is a young stud in the making. He'll be 25 next year, and has struck out 240 batters in 226 major league innings, with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He has given up a lot of unearned runs, which is a small yellow flag, but just look at that strikeout rate. And go back and look at it again. Edwin Jackson is older, more expensive, and not fit to hold Scherzer's jock. Let's look at 2009, Jackson's"career" year. He was 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA, with significantly poorer strikeout and home run rates than Scherzer, though he did post a better WHIP. Pitching in the DH league is a plus for Jackson, but Scherzer pitched in a launching pad in Arizona. Slight edge to Jackson-- assuming we forget that two years ago Jackson was pitching terribly in Tampa Bay, and last year he was league average. I just don't see any breakout ace potential in Jackson, and I do see it for Max Scherzer. But hey, the D'backs can console themselves with Ian Kennedy, who has a bright future in middle relief.

Now, the prospects and the throw-ins. First, Austin Jackson, 23 years old, coming off a year where he batted .300 in triple-A. He has good speed, but his power and plate discipline both declined slightly making the jump from double-A, as he only totaled 36 XBH's and 40 walks in 544 plate appearances. He's major league ready, and it's possible that he hasn't peaked yet. In fact, he could give comparable value to Granderson by 2011 or 2012. Ian Kennedy has only managed 26 starts over the last 2 seasons. His durability and composure are big question marks, though his minor league stats are impressive. But he's 25, the same age as Scherzer, and hasn't proven himself at the big league level yet. The Tigers would also get hard-throwing 23-year old reliever Dan Schlereth and 27-year old lefty reliever Phil Coke, who has looked impressive at times in the big leagues but also allowed 6 home runs to lefty batters last season.

I give the Tigers an A+ for this trade. They screw the Diamondbacks out of Scherzer, and get a major-league ready replacement for Granderson plus two live arms for their bullpen. And they save money. Holy hell. The Yankees get a B for overpaying and not trusting their own farm system (which has produced more great players in the last 15 years than the Mets will between now and 2050). It's a good short term move for them. Hopefully they find another good lefty reliever, and Austin Jackson doesn't become a superstar. The Diamondbacks get an F minus. I can't stress how idiotic a move this is for them. When Max Scherzer wins 20 games for Detroit, I hope I get Josh Byrnes's job.