SUPPOSE THE METS DO GET JASON BAY

The worst thing the Mets could do is to do nothing, and hope last year was a fluke. Some things I hear from the winter meetings are good, like this contract offer to Jason Bay, and their pursuit of John Lackey. Others are terrible, like a 2-year deal for Bengie Molina. Bengie will be 35 years old, and he drew 13 walks in 520 plate appearances last season. His best years are behind him, his defense is slipping, and he will only be a slight upgrade over Omir Santos. Mediocre free agents aren't going to help this team. There are no good catchers on the market, so don't overpay for a bad one. Santos can start, 23-year old rookie Josh Thole can back him up. Maybe you sign a few veteran journeymen to NRI's in the spring.

Jason Bay is 31, and might still be an impact player at the end of a 4-year contract. He has played very well in 4 of his 5 full seasons in the majors, dropping a .247/.327/.418 stinker in Pittsburgh in 2007. His career line is an impressive .280/.376/.519. He posted an OPS of .904 away from Fenway last year, has hit over .300 in the playoffs for his career-- what isn't there to like? By the way, the Mets had him once before, in double-A, but decided they'd rather rent sidearming reliever Steve Reed for the 2002 "pennant race", where they finished 20 games out of the wild card. Oops.

Bay is an excellent player, no doubt about that. A slugging corner outfielder with a touch of speed (13 SB's last year), who is considered slightly above average with the glove. He'd likely bat cleanup for the Mets, and complement their offensive core of Wright, Beltran, and Reyes.

Great signing, assuming it happens, and the Mets don't stop there. There are too many question marks on the rest of the roster. I can live with the uncertainty at catcher, but will Daniel Murphy hit enough to play first base? Is Jeff Francoeur as overrated as I think he is? Can Luis Castillo do anything to change my impression of him as a broken-down slap hitter who rarely gives any effort on the field? Nevermind the dropped pop-up at Yankee Stadium-- I've seen him fail to cover second base on a double play grounder. Even Carlos Baerga didn't do that.

The pitching staff is even scarier. If Johan comes back 100% from what was described as minor elbow surgery, they at least have an ace. Mike Pelfrey regressed badly last year, and may turn out to be a back-end innings eater. Ollie Perez can't throw strikes, and John Maine can't stay off the DL. So last season turned into way too much mound work for Tim Redding and Nelson Figueroa. Adding a second top-tier starter, like John Lackey, is a dire necessity. Roy Halladay would be preferable, but the Mets don't really have any prospects that anyone likes. I've heard rumors of Derek Lowe, who was 36 and ineffective last year; Joel Pineiro, who was awful for 4 years in a row before turning it around in St. Louis; Jeff Suppan, who flat out sucks... maybe Omar could lure Steve Trachsel out of retirement? Lackey at least is a solid #2, and there are no other pitchers on the market who are close to being that.

The bullpen is also a horror show beyond K-Rod and Feliciano, but I don't believe in spending free agent bucks on a bullpen, especially when a team has so many other obvious holes.

The Mets' true failure, in my opinion, has been their inability to develop any homegrown talent to complement Wright and Reyes. I don't know if this is a failure of scouting, drafting, organizational philosophy, or what. The current regime seems to like five-tool knuckleheads with no baseball IQ-- Reyes being the best; but aren't Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Angel Pagan, Fernando Martinez, etc, etc, all pale versions of the same thing? What the Mets really need is a new GM and front office, but that's not going to happen unless Omar loses 100 games this year, sadly.

In short, if Bay signs with the Mets, they aren't done. Lackey and another hitter, maybe Orlando Hudson, need to be locked up as well. If they lose out on Bay to an actual contender, it's time to blow this mess sky-high and trade everyone on this team for prospects that Omar Minaya doesn't pick, cause the only thing he can pick is his nose.