BAY SIGNS WITH THE METS (FINALLY)

The Summary: It's not enough. But it's a good start. Pending a physical, the Mets have signed a 4 year $66 million contract with Jason Bay.

The Good: power, upgrades the lineup, stability in the outfield

Bay is a solid middle of the order hitter, stabilizing the middle of the Mets lineup. He is a career .280 hitter with a solid .376 career OBP. Obviously, though, he's earning the big bucks for his power. He's averaged 30 HRs in the 6 full seasons he has played, hitting over 30 in 4 of the last 5 years. His power bat is welcome in a Mets lineup that ranked last in HRs last year. Between him, Beltran and Wright (who I expect a rebound, from last year at least), the Mets lineup has upgraded to at least an average NL lineup.

I also appreciate that Bay is a *right* handed power hitter. Wright's power outage notwithstanding, CitiField is supposed to be slightly better for right handed power hitters, and having a second right handed power bat is something the Mets haven't had in ages.

Bay, at 31, may be slightly past his peak, but he isn't in serious decline, and should provide quality at bats through the life of his contract. Which is a welcome change from some of the geriatric charity cases that have been signed in the past.

Finally, Bay should provide some consistency in the outfield. He isn't known as a great defender, but he is not a huge liability, and he is certainly better than Sheffield and the random folks that trotted out there last year.

Oh, and he can steal a few bases, too. He's averaged 11 in the last five years.

The Bad: Streaky, Possibly injury risk, Will he last here?

The big question has been: What took him so long to sign? It took a grand total of 20 days before 'Baywatch' ended. Given that the difference between the initial offer of $65 million and the final offer of $66 million is minute, I would like to assume that the supposed market for Bay never materialized. Bay did receive a tad bit more than most experts expected ($60 million over 4 years) but it wasn't as though there were several offers on the table. More likely, Bay and the Mets got this signing done this week to save face for both Bay (imagine if he ended up having to take the kind of deal that Pat Burrell did last year?) and the Mets (much longer and the Mets may have figured out that they could take the deal off the table).

The key indicator is Matt Holiday. If Holiday does not get at least 6 years at Teixeira level ($20+ milllion) prices, then clearly the Mets paid a premium for Bay. But like the Mets had to do with Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran in the early dark years of the 21st century (as opposed to the later dark years of the 2000s), the Mets have to pay to force people to come here.

Less discussed is that Bay's been labeled a fastball hitter, a 'guess' hitter etc. In other words he is a streaky hitter, that unsurprisingly, strikes out a lot. Which can be a bit problematic if things derail as it did for him as a Pirate in 2007 (.247 / .327 / 21 HRs). Hope for everyone's sake he doesn't have a bad year in 2010.

And the last scary point: Boston did not want him because of possible shoulder problems. Obviously, if those shoulder problems are serious, Bay should fail his physical. Then again, these are the Mets. If Bay passes his physical then hurts his shoulder, the Mets eroding fan base may continue to decline.

The Skinny

Taken entirely on it's own, I grade the signing a B. Yes it's a lot of money, but it is still a pretty big offensive upgrade. At this point in the year, other than the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers, I can't think of a team with a much better lineup. If they get NO ONE else, it's still not a horrible signing (unless Bay hurts his shoulder, in which case this signing is another big F for the Mets). If they get two decent pitchers on top of Bay, or one more good pitcher and one more decent hitter (NOT an aging Bengie Molina. Molina is great...for fantasy purposes but not for my hometown team), they turn the Mets into contenders.

Prediction: Assuming a full season I expect 150G 90 R, 150 H, 25+ HR, 100RBI and 80 walks from Bay. Anything else would be gravy. Anything less is a disappointment.