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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

DODGERS V. PHILLIES

The NLCS begins tomorrow night with the surprising Dodgers taking on the defending champion Phillies in a rematch from last year. Is it wrong to call the Dodgers surprising? After all they did win the NL West. While its no surprise they won that, they didn't play well down the stretch, and the Cardinals looked like a monster team. The Phillies, on the other hand, while having the most suspect bullpen, still have a AL style lineup and a darn good rotation. So how do they match-up? Let's take a look:

STARTING ROTATION:

The Dodgers staff, while doing well in the NLDS, is still suspect. They don't have an ace, but a bunch of guys that can be hit or miss. The Phillies lineup is much deeper than the Cards was, so they are going to have to be a hit rather than a miss. The Dodgers will throw out Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vincente Padilla, and then one of the following: Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, or Jon Garland. None of which are bad pitchers really, but none that you can say are great as well.

The Phillies will be firmly behind their acquired ace, Cliff Lee. He'll start twice in this series, if needed. Behind him, they'll have their displaced ace Cole Hamels, who despite a shaky regular season and NLDS start, is still better than all of the Dodgers' rotation. Behind him is possible Rookie of the Year J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and crafty vet Pedro Martinez. Nuff Said.

Advantage: Phillies

BULLPEN:

As I've stated here a few times already, the Phillies have a crazy shaky bullpen, probably the worst out of all the playoff teams, and definitely the worst out of the teams that are left. Brad Lidge has been OK, but he's still a major question, and there's no one else you trust out of there. One or two starters may be used in the pen, but only Happ has any real experience doing so.

In contrast, the Dodgers have a tremendous bullpen. Their closer Broxton throws super hard, and is real solid. They have another closer with their setup man in George Sherrill, and after that, every guy has contributed, even Jeff Weaver! Torre trusts his bullpen so much he has no qualms about taking a starter out real early and going strictly bullpen.

Advantage: Dodgers

CATCHER:

Russell Martin vs. Carlos Ruiz. Both had similar offensive years, but Martin's defense outshines Ruiz', though the Phillies' backstop is pretty clutch. I'd say this is fairly even.

Advantage: Even

INFIELD:

This is one isn't really close: Howard/Utley/Rollins/Feliz is one of the best in baseball. Dodgers have Loney/Belliard(or Hudson)/Furcal/Blake manning the infield spots. Not a bad infield in its own right, but in almost every category they are outshined here. I'd say, only the Yankees have a better infield, but that could be one of the best in baseball EVER.

Advantage: Phillies

OUTFIELD:

This one is a lot closer, but this time it skews to the Dodgers. Ethier/Kemp/Manny are excellent. Ethier is super clutch, Kemp was one of the best overall players in '09, and Manny is Manny; a Manny that's beginning to get hot no less. The Phillies also boast a great outfield with Werth/Victorino/Ibanez. They've got power, speed, and can be clutch yet they still fall short.

Advantage: Dodgers

BENCH:

The Dodgers bench is one of the best. With Belliard most likely still starting, you have Orlando Hudson to start, then you have a starting outfielder on most teams in Juan Pierre as a fourth outfielder, and, oh, they have Jim Thome! Plus others such as Mark Loretta just make them hard to beat. The Phillies have Matt Stairs.

Advantage: Dodgers

MANAGER:

Um, well there's Joe Torre... Sorry, Charlie, but nothing more needs to be said.

Advantage: Dodgers

Overall, it seems obvious that the Dodgers have the edge, or do they? Stacked up together, I think the Phillies line-up can easily mow through the Dodgers starters, but not through their bullpen. The Phillies will also rely on their starters to go deeper, but they'll have to go to their bullpen at some point, and that's where the Dodgers, known for late inning comebacks, will strike. That's the advantage that counts the most for me.

MY PREDICTION: Dodgers get their revenge, but will have to go seven to do it.

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