KNOW YOUR GEOGRAPHY: NL TEAM BY TEAM BREAKDOWNS

Keystone: See anchor, headstone. A keystone is the central component to the function of a structure. When players do not meet a keystone, the team’s record will suffer accordingly. If a team does significantly better than projected, I betcha it will be because the player significantly exceeded the expectations set below. See: Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera for the Yankees.

Atlanta Braves: Keystone: Chipper Jones and Jayson Heyward, 40 total HRs

Atlanta will have one of the most consistent and best starting staffs in the league with Hanson, Jurrjens, Hudson and Lowe. With Billy Wagner as their closer And Takashi Saito as their setup man, their bullpen will be better than last year (not hard). McCann and McLouth will continue to have decent seasons. The question marks are Chipper Jones and the most hyped hitter I’ve heard of since Darryl Strawberry, one due to inexperience and the other due to injury and the wear and tear of many seasons. If one of the two has a very good season, or both have respectable seasons, this team should be close to a wild card, though not quite. If both get lots of at bats and one were to have monster season, though. . .

Arizona Diamondbacks: Keystone: Brandon Webb and Edwin Jackson, 350 total innings

The lineup will look very good, until two among Montero, Drew, Reynolds and Upton start to slump. Any 15 day DL stint will also show the lack of depth in the Arizona bench and bullpen, outside of a very underrated closer in Chad Qualls. And if Webb is not healthy soon or if Jackson does not go deep into games, the team will do even worse than projected.

Chicago Cubs : Keystone: Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot, 162 days on the DL (Last year the first four logged 179 DL days).

I’m being charitable and not adding Ted Lilly to that list. The Cubs have a good starting staff. If the team did not have a bullpen and bench that at best is nondescript and is potentially implosi-Marmol-riffic, then I would say 60-65 starter wins was not outside the realm of possibility. That assumes, unfortunately, a decent and healthy lineup, the former the Cubs barely qualify as and the latter they would never be considered for. Of the 5 critical names I’ve mentioned only Theriot hadn’t logged on significant DL time in the last two years. And Derek Lee apparently can’t find a safe place to sit.

Cincinnati Reds: Keystone: Johnny Cueto, 13 wins

Here’s the secret to why Dusty Baker won’t get it together despite having the pieces to a solid team:

Because he’s Dusty Baker.

The Reds are a potentially great team. They will have three almost All-Stars in their lineup with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Brandon Phillips gets his own sentence, because if he could learn to walk and a few more of his batted balls dropped for hits, he would have better than former MVP Dustin Pedroia. Aaron Harang will have a very good year or else he may end up continuing his reign as the best pitcher on a bad team. And there’s innings eater Bronson Arroyo and exciting Aroldis Chapman. The guy to look at, however, is Cueto. 13 wins means he’s likely to help his team stay above .500. 15 or more wins and suddenly the team has a chance to be 2^nd in a weak division. And if he has less than 11? I’ll blame Dusty Baker for running him into the ground a la Edison Volquez.

Colorado Rockies : Keystone: Carlos Gonzalez OPS .850

It will be the Rockies ’ playoff spot to lose. Eyes are on Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, who will have solid seasons, albeit nowhere near as spectacular as everyone is saying. Expect continued goodness from Hawpe and Helton. But it will need contributions from CarGo to get this offense to, um, proceed. Given Gonzalez’s league average walk rate, he would only need about .280 with 20 homers (ideally with 15 steals) in 500 at bats to meet my expectations. Anything more and the Rockies cement their playoff spot. Much less and given all the other questions I have about this team’s pitching, and a lot of prognosticators will be wondering why they chose this team as the division winner.

Florida Marlins: Keystone: Chris Coglan, Cameron Maybin .300 BA

The Florida rotation will be solid. A decent second keystone would have been Chris Volstad, who I’ve drafted in my deep fantasy league as decent potential for a back end pitcher. Hanley will continue to be the Second Coming for those, like me, who believe in positional scarcity, and the lineup will continue to be chock full of guys with pretty good seasons for league minimum salaries that Florida seems to trip over. Do I expect both to hit .300? Heck, no. Florida should be happy if one of the two hits .300. In fact, based on the lineup, I expect the team not to do as well as everyone is projecting. But if the do make the playoffs, it will be because of these guys.

Houston Astros: Keystone: Hunter Pence 28HRs

Fun fact. Hunter Pence has never hit more than 25 HRs. So basically, he needs to have a career year in order for the team to be a standard deviation away from .500. Yuck. Despite the little love I have for this team as a whole, there’s lots to like about Houston . Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Roy Oswalt (who will have another good but unspectacular year), and despite his spring numbers, Wandy Rodriguez are all solid players. Unfortunately, like the girl in the poem, what’s bad about this team is horrid. Kaz Matsui? Pedro Feliz? Matt Lindstrom? Pass.

Los Angeles Dodgers : Keystone: James Loney 20 HRs

Yes, I think they’ll win the division. If you are really surprised, shame on you.

The Dodgers will overcome question marks in their rotation (that all but about three teams have anyway), to deliver many close games to a relief corps, headed by Jonathan Broxton, the best closer in the NL. At least one Dodger pitcher, I’m predicting Billingsley, will be mentioned in the Cy Young race. And the Dodger lineup is the scariest outside of Philadelphia. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will maintain their success (anything extra is bonus). The one to watch for a step up in his development, however, is Loney. The power that Loney has (he hits a solid number of double) will continue to develop enough so that more of those balls go over the fence. Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will also revert back closer to their three year averages. Manny Ramirez will have a solid year marked with a serious lack of controversy. Shocking I know.

Milwaukee Brewers: Keystone: Corey Hart 22 HRs

Milwaukee has the best three-four pairing in the business in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Yes, Pujols is better than either guy. Arguable, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will put up comparable numbers, surrounded by better hitters. But, what’s scary about these two is that the numbers they put up are before their ‘prime’ years. What would push this team into the playoffs would be A) Two better starters. Yovani Gallardo, who strikes out a lot of folks, but is otherwise overrated, needs a lot of help. One extra starter won’t cut it, especially since the rest of the team are serious back end only options. B) Corey Hart needs to step up. Perhaps it will be Weeks or McGeehee instead. But my money is on the guy who suffered an injury in the 2^nd half, who has already had two 20/20 seasons. Hart hitting 25 / .280 would be enough. It may not happen. Unfortunately, 18/.260 is more likely. For predictive purposes, I split the difference, and assume that they will be another year of being on the cusp of playoff contention.

New York Mets: Keystone: Jose Reyes, 40 SB

It hurts to talk about them.

I expect a rebound from Wright, Reyes and either Maine or Perez. Beltran will be very good, when he comes back. K-Rod and Bay will be solid. Jacobs may end up platooning with Murphy. Murchy, since he can play the outfield, might as well be the supersub. But the pitching. And the injuries. Oh dear God, the injuries.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Keystone: Ryan Doumit, Jeff Clement, 450 ABs each

My, have the mighty have fallen. Remember when this team had Bonds, Bonilla and Van Slyke? As a Met fan, ‘When I find myself in times of trouble,’ covering the worst franchise in baseball makes me feel better. Yup, that’s right. This is the year that the worst team in baseball finally has the worst record in baseball, again. The only nice things to say about this team is that 1)Andrew McCutchen will be awesome and that 2) Octavio Dotel won’t suck. Wait, I need to revise that. Octavio Dotel won’t suck all the time. Let’s hope that this year the Pirates finally hit bottom and start to let decent young players develop, rather than trade them. What scares me, though, is that Doumit and Clement may not be the youth movement that the Pirates need.

San Diego Padres: Keystone: Adrian Gonzalez, 140 games as a Padre

The Padres have the dubious distinction of being the best of the last place teams. The reason is simple. AGon, the weirdest of these nicknames I’ve seen since Jennifer Lopez started this stupid naming trend. Adrian Gonzalez is the best hitter on a bad team in the NL. San Diego has an option for Gonzalez for 2011 for $5.5 million, which in Major League Baseball is peanuts. If San Diego wants to jettison this season like they did last year when trading Peavy, they could trade Gonzalez for equivalent value. Of course then the Padres will be truly awful, and there will be little reason for anyone to be a fan of the Padres. Well, there are a few minor reasons. Secondary keystones would be Kyle Blanks, 20 HRs; and Everth Cabrera 30 SBs, which would prove that San Diego has a chance of pulling off a Rays ’08 in the next few years.

San Francisco Giants: Keystone: Barry Zito, ERA 4.33 ERA

Everyone who likes the Giants overlooks this HUGE question mark. Lincecum can continue looking like he’s Jesus if he were to ever inhale, given the way he will continue to pitch. Matt Cain will be good, though he will regress to the mean. Jonathan Sanchez will continue to develop nicely. Given the lineup, or lack thereof, after Kung Fu Panda and Bengie Molina (a.k.a. the Molina who can hit the ball, but won’t walk, unlike Yadier, his younger brother and statistical mirror), however, the only way this team could possibly contend is if Zito were to improve to mediocrity.

St. Louis Cardinals: Keystone: Brad Penny, 100Ks

La Russa. Pujols. Holliday. Carpenter. Wainwright. Barring major injury (which is something to think about with Pujols and Carpenter), we can pretty much say that this division has been locked down. When it comes to home field advantage and the playoffs, however, I question whether the supporting cast can manage to maintain a decent level of performance. I don’t question whether Ludwick can hit 30 HRs, or whether Skip Schumaker can hit at least .290. I’m not worried about Kyle Lohse, either. How can I be worried about a guy who’s expected to be league average in just about everything? The pressure falls on Brad Penny to be slightly above average. Dave Duncan just needs to keep this guy healthy and performing into September, and you have your starting four for the playoffs. Penny isn't really a strikeout pitcher, so 100ks signifies a large quantity of innings, OR that he his K rate goes north of 5.0ks/9innings. Now if Penny can be good, maybe we have a serious contender for that team in the other league.

Washington Nationals: Keystone: Nyjer Morgan OBP .340

Can the Nationals break tradition and NOT be the worst team in the league? With Ryan Zimmerman at 3^rd, a decent performance from Josh Willingham and your standard .240+ /40 HR season with 100+ walks from Adam Dunn, the answer this year may finally be YES! Of course, given the traditional crapitude of the Nationals starting staff, they may still need a little bit of help. That help comes from Nyjer Morgan not regressing back into mediocrity. What works against Morgan is that he doesn’t walk often for a top of the order hitter. To prevent becoming Corey Patterson, he will need to hit either .300 or walk more. The league average OBP, by the way, is .336. So, the good news for Morgan is that the expectations are low.

Projected Standings and awards will follow above.